The interpretation of the ageing experiments requires certain model calculations to obtain the relevant physical reliability parameters. In particular the extraplation of irreversible drift kinetics is necessary for reliabiity extrapolation on a physical basis. The projection in the diagram outlines the squareroot-of-time kinetics of chemical diffusion and the power-law kinetics of plastic creep in metal polycrystals. When both ridges join at the top of the probability diagram a failure event can be predicted for the considered sample.